Wednesday, April 02, 2008

Tellabs Kills Its Verizon GPON Efforts

1 Comment:

Scott said...

This is stunning. An incumbent standing up to Verizon and saying that they won't play the "lose money here and make it up elsewhere" game anymore. What an interesting world it would be if ALU and MOT followed suit.

Verizon is to be praised for their FTTH push. Their deployment, more than any other in North America, has made FTTH mainstream. Unfortunately it's a bit like the Bob Marley / reggae problem. Once the entire movement gets associated with just one personality, the movement is crippled if that personality is removed. Should Verizon continue to crush its vendors to the point that they all retreat, the blow to FTTH would be devastating.

Right now Verizon's deployment is orders of magnitude larger than all other North American FTTH networks combined. All of the major GPON vendors' FTTH business plans are or were predicated on that Verizon-sized market, no matter what they now claim. With consolidation (and the AT&T FTTN decision), there just aren't enough customers out there for all of the FTTH vendors to make it. And it's not clear that "winning" Verizon is such a good thing either.

We're in for some interesting fallout over the next year, up and down the company size roster. Look for more announcements of FTTH company consolidation and/or abandonment of the market.

It's enough to make one consider moving to the FTTH Mecca in Scandinavia.

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